Putin will only succumb to unspeakable force

Millions of words have been written on who and what Vladimir Putin is. To summarise, a despot who is as paranoid as he is ruthless and whose Utopian vision is to reconstitute the Soviet Union.

Putin will argue, with some validity, that EU and NATO expansionism has poked the Russian bear repeatedly since the fall of the Soviet Union.

He will conveniently ignore treatment of those inside his own country (Chechnya anyone?) who desire separatism from Mother Russia, whilst proclaiming Donetsk and Luhansk, predominantly Russian speaking, as independent of Ukraine.

Putin’s alliance with the pariah that is Bashar al-Assad has long since ceased to be front page news as the geopolitical tectonic plates continue to shift.

As for Crimea, that was “the will of the people” who desired Russian not Ukrainian oversight. Of course it was.

Ukraine is second only to Russia in terms of European land mass. If Putin desired to bring Ukraine to its knees, he has the military might to do so but the consequences would be severe to say the least.

One of the supposed pretexts for Putin’s aggression was his desire for Ukraine to never join NATO (even though 60% of the Ukrainian population desire that). The reality is that the border dispute precipitated by Putin in Crimea means Ukraine is precluded from joining NATO. Until the dispute is resolved. Which Putin controls.

The sanctions imposed to date by the West are tacit acceptance of what Joe Biden “inadvertently” or “accidentally” depending on your perspective, alluded to some weeks ago.

Perhaps the tens of millions of dollars his son Hunter purloined through his “business dealings” in Ukraine has made Biden reluctant to do much more than blither on in front of an autocue without saying very much at all.

Germany’s suspension of Nord Stream 2 is an empty gesture given their near total dependence on Russian gas as a result of Angela Merkel’s decision to remove nuclear power as a German energy option post Fukushima.

The UK is talking tough but sanctions against 3 super high net worth individuals and 5 banks will barely register with Moscow.

Putin’s kleptocracy has the Russian economy on a par with Spain. That will not change whilst he remains in the Kremlin.

As Liam Halligan acknowledged on GBNews in discussion with Nigel Farage on Tuesday evening (22nd February 2022), Russia produces:

  • 1/3 of the world’s wheat
  • 20% of the world’s corn
  • 80% of the world’s sunflower oil

Throw in a ban on the export of Potassium Nitrate (fertiliser) which will further drive up food costs and it is hard not to believe that Putin is playing his dirty hand well.

Whatever domestic agitation he has (and it does oscillate), there is no such thing as free and fair elections under Putin any more than there were under Yeltsin.

His “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” tacit alliance with the Chinese Communist Party, is less clear cut than it is presented (the 2 countries even skirmish lightly from time to time) but their pact extends to vetoes on those wishing to censure each country’s latest increasingly flagrant transgression of international law or human rights atrocities.

President Xi will be digesting the fragmentation of NATO with unrestrained delight. The truth is, as he already knew if he wished to invade Taiwan, despite much harrumphing, desk thumping and gnashing of teeth, he could.

Unlike Putin, who turns 70 in October, Xi’s idea of long term strategy is way beyond his own lifetime, secure in the knowledge that the Chinese Communist Party has a vice like grip over its population.

Putin has once again won the strategic battle with Western Liberal Democracy. NATO is in disarray and whether or not Putin advances further towards Kiev, Ukraine stands alone with the exception of token weaponry.

Russian soldiers returning home in body bags will be avoided at all costs and my best guess is Putin will cherry pick other parts of the former Soviet empire in the months and years to come.

Appeasement never works. There have been plenty of opportunities for the West to take meaningful action against Putin. Each has failed. Emmanuel Macron has emerged as the modern day Neville Chamberlain.

The US has the military hardware to overrun the Russian Federation in Ukraine with extreme force. Do you believe this is remotely likely, given the embarrassment of the Afghanistan withdrawal just 6 months ago? I for one do not.

If I’m right, Putin will not stop. Not as long as he is alive.

© justchrisdavies 2022

Published by justchrisdavies

Happily married. Thatcherite Conservative, hawk, libertarian, meritocrat, patriot, free speech, free markets, abhor all identity politics, woke/cancel culture/Critical Race Theory. Privilege is not exclusively white. Proud of my country, and it’s history. Support our armed forces. Refuse to bow to revisionism. The Laffer Curve will set us free. Lower taxes = higher tax receipts @justchrisdavies on Twitter, GETTR and Parler. Support GBNews, Fellow of the Bow Group, Member of the Bruges Group.

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